the mayans warned us: don't trespass in yellowstone

Last night I settled down into a cushy high-backed chair, got comfortable, turned off my brain and let my mouth hang open for three hours, while Hollywood spoon feed me a sweet gruel made of the worst dialogue, cheesiest moments and most unnecessary (but awesome) special effects they had to offer. I got to see a preview screening of 2012, the latest in a long line of terrible end-of-the world blockbusters. And you know what? Not that bad! Not nearly as bad as The Day After Tomorrow which was bad even as far as bad things go. But 2012 was pretty entertaining because it totally realized how ridiculous it was and then it featured some really amazing images.

Let me say something kind of controversial: 2012 was not very scientifically accurate. I know. I realize that you probably just let out a very loud "Whaaaaaatttt??" and now people in your office are coming over to see what you are gaping about, and then you show them that sentence and they all lift their eyebrows at this controversial blog you are reading. But it is true.

So I am not here to review the scientific accuracy of 2012. To do that would take up this entire blog plus a livejournal and even then I would not have enough room to explain all the ways in which 2012 is not even logically accurate (and I should point out that contrary to what the above trailer says, the Mayans were not even close to being the earliest human civilization. The Mayan culture peaked about 1350 years ago*). See? And if I took the time to point out all the inaccuracies then everyone would wonder why the hell I did that because who cares? It's a movie. It was fun. It was totally ridiculous and utilized every end-of-the-world-movie cliche that exists, but whatever. So I don't want to analyze the whole movie, but I thought I'd take a whack at the first four minutes.

 There are no plot spoilers here, as if anyone cares about the plot in a movie like this. Actually, I guess I already told you that I will spoil the first four minutes, but this movie is over two and a half hours long, so there is still plenty of unspoiled movie (insert joke about how this movie is already spoiled). Really, I should tell you what happens in the last half hour and then you can just get up and leave the theater at a time when this movie should have ended. But I'm not actually going to do that.

The movie 2012 is hinged on the (fictional) idea that the Mayan calendar says that the world will end in the year 2012. First of all, the Mayan calendar doesn't actually say that. Problem solved, this movie is never made. Roll credits.

Just kidding, this movie is made. Know why? Because a movie doesn't have to be scientifically accurate to be made. Thank you, America! But what is troubling about this particular falsehood is that there are people out there who believe this stuff, and there are people who hear the craziest folks screaming the loudest and don't know what to think (even when we have wonderful, clear debunkings of all the bull). Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures decided to capitalize on people's real yet unfounded fear by launching realistic looking ad campaigns about preparations for the end of the world in 2012. Very nice, Columbia and Sony.

But again, just so we are clear, the world will not actually end in 2012. 

Sigh. Ok, let me just say this little bit. There is a line in the movie that goes something like "We have all these fancy machines and the Mayans saw this coming." That statement sort of encapsulates the point of view that makes people think the 2012 shenanigans might be right. Yes, scientists can be wrong. Sometimes fancy machines fail. But science doesn't come down to fancy machines, it comes down to an unwavering methodology. With science you always have the opportunity to find out why you are wrong because you can apply your methodology as many times as you want, and with a little creativity, you can find different ways to arrive at the same place. Mystical predictions don't give you that. It might be comforting to think that we could get the answers to all our questions from a crystal ball, but it wouldn't be half as much fun, and doesn't actually seem like the most efficient way to get information. Like, the conspiracy theorists say the Mayans knew about the end of the world but they didn't know about antibiotics or electricity? The Magic 8 Ball just skipped over those, I guess. With science we are listening to nature in a way that is most reflective of nature's own processes. It actually seems very unnatural to think that such predictions of the future would reveal themselves in any way other than how all of natures mysteries unveil themselves - through cause and effect.

OK, now we can get on with having some fun with this movie. 2012 starts out with some really beautiful images of the planets and flares on the surface of the sun (I could have watched 2.5 hours of that and been fine). Then the movie goes to India where two scientists who are friends (established by horrible dialogue) go down into a very deep mine shaft where one scientist is looking for neutrinos. So far so good - neutrino projects are often underground because neutrinos travel right through the Earth, but the cosmic rays that can mess with neutrino detectors do not. Put it underground and you get less disturbance from those cosmic rays and other particles. (Shown - the MINOS project rests in Minnesota's deepest iron mine).

So for a moment, the neutrino science is accurate. Scientist 1, who is running the lab, tells visiting Scientist 2 that the neutrino count hitting the Earth has doubled because of solar flares (neutrinos do come from the sun and from solar flares!), and now they are seeing the largest solar flares in human history!

Initially I thought this was a silly thing to say - assuming that we could only know about solar flares as far back as we have been watching for them, and that prior to the satellite age, people couldn't detect them. And for very small flares, that's true. But it turns out that some solar flares do leave traces on Earth.

 The largest example is the 1859 solar storm. This massive solar flare, noted by an observer on the ground as a bright white spot (I do not fully understand how he was looking right at the sun) sent a bubble of hot, charged particles soaring toward Earth. Normally the Earth's magnetic field can deflect charged particles, but this flare was too great. It sent positrons careening down magnetic field lines to Earth, which made the norther Auroras visible as far south Florida. It also short circuited telegraph wires, causing a lot of fires. A less intense solar flare in 1989 caused a blackout in Quebec. This one was more than three times as powerful. Besides the bubble of charged particles and the neutrinos, solar flares can also pummel Earth with radiation; usually it's low frequency X-rays that overlap with high frequency radio waves, interfering with anyone using those radio waves to communicate.

In a New Scientist article on March 23 2007 titled "Solar 'superflare' shredded Earth's ozone,' Kelly Young writes about the evidence and records we have of the solar storm of '59. From the article:

For roughly two days after the flare, high-energy protons entered the atmosphere through the polar regions, channelled there by the planet's magnetic field lines.

The protons ionised nitrogen and oxygen molecules in the atmosphere, which then formed nitrogen oxides.

The nitrogen oxides rained down as acid rain, and traces were found many decades later in ice core samples.

So because of these deposits on ice cores, paired with the human documentation, we know that this solar flare did occur. So I guess it's possible that we would be able to determine when the most powerful solar flare occurred, possibly even before human civilizations.

But let's be clear that while solar flares can definitely cause damage, they can hardly lead to the end of the world.

So Scientist 1 tells Scientist 2 that they have seen an increase in neutrino counts and the largest solar flares ever. Then the two scientists have an exchange that goes something like this:

Scientist 1: Normally, the neutrinos pass through the Earth because they don't interact with regular matter.

Scientist 2: That's right.

Scientist 1: But now the neutrinos are  changing; they are interacting with the Earth's core.

Scientist 2: That's impossible.

Yes, it is. Surprise, this movie is four minutes long. Roll credits.

Just kidding. This movie is two and a half hours long, remember? Scientist 1 continues to explain how the neutrinos are not only interacting with matter, but they are acting like microwaves and heating up the Earth's core! VERY DRAMATIC MUSIC! Scientist 1 opens up what looks like a submarine hatch and inside is...BOILING WATER WITH WEIRD LIGHTING BEHIND IT! WHAT?! DID YOU JUST OPEN UP A SAFE THAT CONTAINS THE CENTER OF THE EARTH?! IS THE CENTER OF THE EARTH A WITCH'S CAULDRON FROM A CHILDREN'S HALLOWEEN PARTY?!

  +   =
This is the equation this movie was based on.

And then my logic drowned in an avalanche of questions (like why would the particles heat up the Earth's core, but not first heat up the oceans?) and I realized I was not meant to win this battle and I let my brain go to sleep and enjoyed watching Woody Harrelson play a crazy conspiracy theorist  living in Yellowstone National Park. Which brings me to the meaning of this post title:

I know we have established that the remaining four hundred hours of 2012 are pure fiction, but please DO NOT CLIMB OVER FENCES IN YELLOWSTONE PARK THAT SAY KEEP OUT. Most of the time it is not a government conspiracy that you should investigate, but a warning that the area contains hot springs and the ground is weak. No matter how much the park tries to keep it safe, people still die in Yellowstone and nearby wild lands because they go walking in areas they shouldn't, the ground gives way and they fall into hot springs. It's very sad and worth noting for safety's sake.

On a happier note, I promise to write a post about the physics of geysers very soon.

I leave you with Carl Sagan in autotune.

*As was pointed out by you wonderful readers, my post skipped over the fact that the real victims in all of this 2012 hoopla might be the Mayans themselves, and I'm sorry didn't do justice to their history. The Mayan civilization included peoples living from what is now southern Mexico down through the Yucatan Penninsula. They were extremely advanced in math, science and language, having come up with the concept of 0 very early on, one of the earliest and fully developed written languages of the Americas, and yes, some very intricate calendars. The roots of this culture go back to 2600  BC (thanks, Richard). My comment above referred to the peak of Mayan civilization, which took place between 250 and 900 AD and I apologize because my past tense (since edited) did imply that they had ended, when in fact they carry on to this day (thanks, HP). Plus, and I'm not an expert here, but there are some sources which argue that Mayan culture was intact before 200 AD and began to disintegrate under the force of some totalitarian leaders shortly thereafter. Various factors may have lead to break up of the Mayans, including political revolt and ecological disasters, but mysteries also remain about why the Mayan people began to abandon some of their largest cities. Spanish explorers arrived in that area in the 1500's and began a long history of repression and mistreatment of all the native people there, as well as destroying text that might have answered many questions about Mayan history. Still, the Mayans persevered  and their culture survives and carries on to this day.  I found one article online in which a Mayan elder talks about having to field questions about the 2012 ridiculousness, and I think there should be more of that. Thanks so much you guys for keeping me on my toes and helping to fill in the conversation.

Comments

[HP]

They [the Mayans] lived about 1350 years ago

So, while we're on the topic of scientific accuracy (cultural anthropology is too science), I'd like to point out that the Mayans aren't some kind of ancient, mystical "lost race." They represent the majority of the populations of modern Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Thanks to immigration, you can find Mayans, speaking Mayan languages and engaging in Mayan cultural practices, living in modern cities all over the world. I live in a city with a large Mayan immigrant population, and I see real, flesh-and-blood Mayans every single day.

One of the things that gets lost in the hoopla over the horrible physics of 2012 is the horrible anthropology of treating Mayans -- who have been waging a very real struggle for centuries against colonialism, poverty, racism, and human rights abuses -- like they were extinct. I guess if the Mayans are extinct, then we don't have to worry about exploiting them.

[www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=885970456]

Furthermore, while the Maya might not have been the most ancient of civilisations, there were major Maya cities well back into the first millennium BC at sites such as Nakbe and El Mirador, both of which may well have had tens of thousands of inhabitants.

[Leitchy]

I've seen the trailer to 2012 and all I could think of was "What a crock!" I have one question for you, Calla, why was The Day After Tomorrow so bad? I enjoyed the movie, even if I thought the science was dodgy. But I thought it probably had at least SOME basis in fact, whereas 2012 is total tosh. And it had a story. Not the most complicated of stories, but it was there.

I have no wise or witty comments to make about Mayans, either those in the past or those living in the present. But I want to share with you another YouTube link to Carl Sagan, this time with friends, in what I believe is a more beautiful song than "A Glorious Dawn". It's called "We Are All Connected". I hope you enjoy it.

http://www.youtube.com/profile?user=melodysheep#p/u/0/XGK84Poeynk

As for 2012, I'll wait for it to come on free-to-air TV, and then I'll probably record it and watch it later...in bits over several days thus reducing the amount of brain-eating stupidity I'm exposed to at any one time. :)

[Calla Cofield]

I guess arguing about which end of the world movie is worse than the other is part of why they are so fun and silly. And now that you've got me thinking about The Day After Tomorrow, I'm laughing again, so I guess even though I thought it was terrible I have happy memories of it. I mean 'cmon! ICE THAT CHASES PEOPLE!

We should gather round the campfire and share our favorite ridiculous moment from an end of the world movie.

And all the Carl Sagan songs are great.

[Dave Hall]

Great post.
One of the best reviews (from a non-science standpoint)I have seen so far came from the Inlander, a weekly paper in Spokane. Love the term: "destructo porn." Here is a link: http://www.inlander.com/content/screen_movie_review_2012

[Fresca]

Oh, thanks for that. I laughed so hard!
Lesson learned:
Neutrinos won't boil Earth's center,
but bears can surely hurt you.

[Eric Baird]

My guilty secret is that I really loved The Core (2003). Utterly stupid premise. Absurd. Stopping and spinning the Earth's core? Did the scriptwriters seriously have any idea how much momentum ... never mind.
So I started dubiously watching the film expecting to hate it and walk away after maybe fifteen minutes, but after the pigeons intro and the space shuttle bit I was hooked. It was as if the scriptwiters had said to themselves, "okay, so this is the dumbest idea for a movie we've ever heard of ... so lets try damned hard to make it FUN!"
And it was.

[HP]

Calla, thanks for the update. I was offline for some days and just got back to this thread.

Your link to the Mayan elder is borked; delete the extraneous "http//".

One of the really interesting questions raised by the Mayan experience is whether we regard large cities with monumental architecture as the "peak" of a civilization. Regardless of whether the reason was political or environmental, the Mayans abandoned their cities and returned to a village-based, agrarian lifestyle. If we regard that transition in terms of "peak" and "decline," is that an objective statement about the Maya, or a statement about the sociocultural values embedded in our Western cultural perspective?

I'm not an anthropologist or philosopher; I don't know how to answer those questions. Subjectively, my reaction when seeing modern Maya is twofold. When I see modern Maya (who are primarily, as is common to new immigrants, working as manual laborers or other minimum wage jobs), my first reactions are a) these people look just like the images on Classic Maya sculptures and friezes, and b) Ohmigod, they're beautiful. Which probably means I'm not entirely objective here.

[Skyler]

I laughed at the witch's cauldron. A lot.

[Charles Pergiel]

"But again, just so we are clear, the world will not actually end in 2012."

Probably not, but 2012 is still in the future. Anything could happen. Including the world ending. Not likely, and not because of the Mayan calendar, but who know? A big rock might fall out of the sky.

[Jimmy]

I generally like "end of the world" movies and I've been fascinated by the 2012 concept since I was a kid in the 50's. I used to count up how old I'd be if I lived long enough to see 2012 and be skeptical that I'd ever live that long. Now I'm almost there. All the Hopi predictions, the signs of the next turning, have come to pass already and we're just sitting around waiting for it to happen, watching everything go to pieces around us. But I expect the true lesson of 2012 is that there aren't any mystical solutions to real problems, not even drastic disastrous solutions. We'll all get up the next morning and have to fix things ourselves. If we did that it would be the literal turning of a new world.

JimmyTH

[Sheri D]

Almost a year after this movie, we're getting news from NASA of a solar tsunami. You know, I'm intrigued by the whole 2012 thing, especially when tied to the ancient Mayan culture. There are many debunking of the 2012 end-of-the-world predictions, but I'm impressed by the precision of the Mayan documentation of natural phenomenons.

More importantly, the Mayans did not predict the end of the world. They predicted the end of a cycle, which I don't know exactly what. The doomsayers are just saying it's the apocalypse. Don't understand what our scientists are saying.

[Liz Thompson]

Thanks for this very informative post! I've been searching for posts like these for hours now. LOL

You're right Jimmy. For some, it could be the beginning of something new.